Internal and Regional Threats to Nato Interests

The governments of Central Asia and the south Caucasus face a kaleidoscope of challenges as they each navigate the transition to modern, independent, and stable states. Most of these problems emanate from internal dynamics within each state that limit their ability to ensure stable and legitimate governments for the population. These are weak states characterized by repressive personalistic rule with strong ethnic divisions and gross maldistribution of income and resources. These problems are compounded by the weakness of intraregional cooperation on a host of shared economic, security, and social problems. Together, the weakness of these states and the absence of multilateral cooperation threaten Western strategic interests in maintaining regional stability, a favorable balance of power, and access to energy supplies. These trends suggest that the next 10– 15 years could witness the emergence of large-scale instability and conflict and the possibility of state collapse.